The Israel-UAE Deal: Implications for India

Donald Trump, who has been quite infamous for his inherent and sometimes induced comic attributes has achieved something that will go down in history as one of the most important events of the current times. He has managed to broker peace in a 72-year-old dispute. The Arab world seems to have settled down with the reality of the existence of Israel and this, from the erstwhile position of Israelis being occupants of Palestinian land.

Undoubtedly it is a major set-back for the Palestinian Intifada that had enjoyed major support from the Arab world. One of the most important factors that have contributed to this is the sharp disagreements between the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) and the more militant Hamas. This deal is indicative of frustration that gripped the Arab states, for whom the normalization of relations with Israel, the most robust and functional economy of the region has been on the cards for a long time.

It is also very bad news for Iran. The primarily Sunni Arab states have always seen the primarily Shia Iran as an enemy state. Israeli dislike of Iran is also very well known. There are chances that Israel and the Arab states will, in this regard, collude to put up a joint front against Iran which is diplomatic gold for the USA.

At this historic moment, it will be very important to wait for Saudi Arabia’s reaction to this. They are the de-facto leader of the OIC (Organization of Islamic Co-operation) and the normalization of Arab relations with Israel will inevitably bring seismic shifts in the politics of the OIC. It is very important to note that Saudi Arabia has had good ties with both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States of America (USA) and this means they will probably side with the USA, Israel, and UAE in blessing the normalization of relations.

The shifting of collaboration policy in West Asia will also have a cascading effect on the way India approaches the region. India will now be able to maintain good relations with Israel, USA, and the Arab States, all at once, which had been a tedious job for a long time. Internal politics had forced India to maintain very low key diplomatic relations with Israel, primarily owing to appeasement politics.

Indian Muslims, post the ‘Khilafat’ movement, which was to protest the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire, to create Turkey and adjoining states had a tendency to side against all western imposition. This tendency is the primary reason why Muslims of the sub-continent, of both India and Pakistan, support the Palestinian cause and see the Israeli state as illegitimate – a creation of British imperialism.

In our neighborhood, Pakistan’s internal politics is based on blaming the evil axis of the USA, Israel, and India for all the problems on their land and this deal puts them in a very tough position. It is very plausible that the politics of the OIC will witness sharp disagreements between the member states. The Turkey-Pakistan-Malaysia axis which had previously proposed an alternate Islamic Co-operation organization, which was recently reiterated by the incumbent Foreign Minister of Pakistan Shah Mehmood Qureshi, suddenly seems a valid option and if this happens, India will be better poised to grab a membership in the existing OIC.

There are other internal issues though that plague India. There is a probable chance that the Sunni Muslim opinion in India will be divided between the pro-Israeli Arab discourse and anti-Israeli Turkey-Pakistan discourse and while this might not seem as much of a concern – there are other factors to weigh in here. The most important factor at this moment would also be the Shia factor in India.

The Shia community in India have an affinity for Iran which was evident from the fact that – when the Iranian General Qasem Soleimani was assassinated by the USA, there were street protests in India on the actions of the USA. Combining this affinity with the recent opening of a Twitter account by Ali Hosseini Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, in Hindi, opens doors for the influence that Tehran could exercise on the Shia community of India. The UAE-Israel deal puts Iran in a fix and will, therefore, have to bank on international support and the Shias in India have considerable political clout to influence the Indian stance.

Image: Ali Hosseini Khamenei’s Twitter Profile in Hindi

In exclusion, these are least of our worries but the collusion of anti-Israeli Turkey-Pakistan Sunni discourse and anti-USA Iranian Shia discourse is what one should worry about. In India, all this might show up as a melting pot and influence politics accordingly. The best thing to do is to wait and watch.